Modelling the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland
Since 2009 the Sheffield Addictions Research Group has undertaken a number of modelling projects for the Scottish Government to appraise the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol.
Introduction
In 2008 we developed the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) as part of a programme of work funded by the UK Department of Health to appraise alcohol pricing and promotion policy options.
At the same time the Scottish Government was consulting on a range of proposals aimed at reducing levels of alcohol-related harm including taking action to restrict promotions of alcoholic beverages and introducing a minimum retail price for a UK unit of alcohol.
In March 2009, they announced specific actions in reaction to the consultation responses, including modifications to the existing licensing regulations to prohibit discounting of alcohol and to introduce a minimum retail price per unit of alcohol.
The Scottish Government then asked us to adapt the English version of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to a Scottish population to assess the likely impacts of introducing these new policies in Scotland.
2009-2012 reports
In 2009, we published a report on a Scottish adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model:
- Purshouse R, Meng Y, Rafia R, Brennan A, Meier P (2009) Model-Based Appraisal of Alcohol Minimum Pricing and Off-Licensed Trade Discount Bans in Scotland: A Scottish Adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy, Model Version 2 ScHARR, University of Sheffield
This was followed by updates in 2010 and 2012, using newly available data:
- Meng Y, Purshouse R, Brennan A, Meier P (2010) Model-Based Appraisal of Alcohol Minimum Pricing and Off-Licensed Trade Discount Bans in Scotland Using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (V2): – an Update Based on Newly Available Data ScHARR, University of Sheffield
- Meng Y, Hill-McManus D, Brennan A, Meier P (2012) Model-Based Appraisal of Alcohol Minimum Pricing and Off-Licensed Trade Discount Bans in Scotland Using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (V2): – Second Update Based on Newly Available Data ScHARR, University of Sheffield
Evidence from these reports was used by Scottish Government when proposing the Alcohol Scotland Bill in 2010 and subsequent legislation for minimum unit pricing in 2012.
2016 report
A further update was published in April 2016 presenting evidence relevant to the legal challenge to the Scottish Government's minimum pricing legislation. In addition to incorporating newly available data, this update added new analyses comparing the effects of minimum unit pricing and taxation policies by income group:
- Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce P, Meier P, Brennan A (2016) Model-Based Appraisal of the Comparative Impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and Taxation Policies in Scotland ScHARR, University of Sheffield
2023 report
In July 2022 the Scottish Government commissioned us to undertake new modelling work to appraise a range of minimum unit price (MUP) thresholds, compare these to duty increases, assess the potential impact of pandemic-era changes in drinking on alcohol-related health and explore possible approaches to uprating the MUP level over time.
The work involved adapting the new Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model (STAPM) for Scotland, which is also detailed in the report:
- Angus C, Morris D, Leeming G, Chen RKL, Wilson L, Stevely A, Holmes J, Brennan A, Gillespie D (2023) New Modelling of Alcohol Pricing Policies, Alcohol Consumption and Harm in Scotland: An Adaptation of the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model University of Sheffield
Key project information
The Scottish Government commissioned SARG to undertake a number of modelling projects to appraise the potential impact of minimum unit pricing policies for alcohol.
Dates
2009 – 2023
Institutions involved
University of Sheffield
Key contact
Research team
Colin Angus
Professor Alan Brennan
Ryan Kai Le Chen
Dr Duncan Gillespie
Dr Daniel Hill-McManus
Professor John Holmes
Grace Leeming
Professor Petra Meier
Dr Yang Meng
Dr Damon Morris
Dr Robert Pryce
Professor Robin Purshouse
Rachid Rafia
Dr Abigail Stevely
Dr Luke Wilson
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