Evaluating Later and Expanded Premises Hours for Alcohol in the Night-time Economy (ELEPHANT)
This study uses a mixed-methods natural experiment design to evaluate and explore the impact of increases in late-night opening hours for alcohol premises in Glasgow and Aberdeen and their implications for the night-time economy in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Introduction
In 2018-19, the Scottish cities of Glasgow and Aberdeen changed their alcohol licensing policies to allow bars and nightclubs to stay open later at night. International studies have previously found that increases in late-night opening hours have tended to lead to increased levels of injuries and violence, with significant rises in ambulance call-outs and assaults.
Aims of the evaluation
This natural experiment evaluation study, funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), aims to evaluate the effects of these increases in opening hours and to assess their wider impacts on businesses, policing, the ambulance services, public health and the wider NHS. We also aim to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these outcomes and on the night-time economy.
What we will do
The study takes a mixed-methods approach, using both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the 'natural experiment' of increased licensing hours.
The research is structured into five Work Packages (WPs):
Why this research matters
Alcohol licensing is one of the few policy approaches that local authorities have available to them to address alcohol-related harms in their area. However, local authorities are also keen to promote economic growth. This study will provide new insights into the potential tensions between these aims and quantify the potential impacts and trade-offs involved in decisions around late-night alcohol licensing decisions.
In addition, the UK government has recently announced proposals to reform the alcohol licensing system, including a liberalisation of late-night opening hours. This study will provide direct evidence on the impacts of this approach, which may help to inform the development of national policy.
Research team
University of Stirling: Professor Niamh Fitzgerald (principal investigator), Dr David Fitzpatrick
University of Sheffield: Professor Colin Angus (WP5 lead)
University of Glasgow: Professor Jim Lewsey, Professor Emma McIntosh
Glasgow Caledonian University: Professor Carol Emslie
University of Dundee: Dr Andrea Mohan
Key project information
This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme (NIHR129885). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.
Dates
October 2020 – December 2025
Funding
£1,185,782.60
Principal investigator
Professor Niamh Fitzgerald, University of Stirling
Institutions involved
University of Stirling
University of Sheffield
Glasgow Caledonian University
University of Dundee
University of Manchester
Alcohol Focus Scotland
Glasgow City Health and Social Care Partnership
Key contacts
Publications
Sheikh N, Lewsey J, Henriques-Cadby I, Angus C, Manca F, Haghpanahan H, et al (2026) Impact of later trading hours for bars and clubs on alcohol-related ambulance call-outs and crimes in Scotland: a controlled interrupted time series study BMJ Public Health DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjph-2025-003722
Emslie C, Maxwell K, O'Donnell R, Mitchell G, Cook M, Uny I, Nicholls J, Lewsey J, McIntosh E, Angus C, Mohan A, Fitzgerald N (2026) How are bars and nightclubs in Scotland using extensions in late-night alcohol trading hours? Venue observation study International Journal of Drug Policy DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2026.105210
Sheikh N, Haghpanahan H, Lewsey J, et al (2025) Protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a natural experiment to evaluate the impact of later trading hours for bars and clubs in the night-time economy in Scotland: The ELEPHANT study BMJ Open DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-095241
Sheikh N, Lewsey J, Henriques-Cadby I, Angus C, Manca F, Haghpanahan H, McIntosh E, Mitchell G, Cook G, Maxwell K, Mohan A, Uny I, Smith E, Nicholls J, O'Donnell R, Fitzgerald N (2025) The impact of later trading hours for bars and clubs on alcohol-related ambulance call-outs and crimes in Scotland: A controlled interrupted time series study medRxiv DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339133
Fitzgerald N, O'Donnell R, Uny R, Martin JG, Cook M, Graham K, Stockwell T, Hughes K, Wilkinson C, McGill E, Miller PG, Reynolds J, Quigg Z, Angus C (2024) Reducing alcohol harms whilst minimising impact on hospitality businesses: 'Sweetspot' policy options International Journal of Drug Policy DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104465
Sheikh N, Henriques-Cadby I, Haghpanahan H, Angus C, O'Donnell R, Emslie C, Fitzgerald N, Lewsey J (2024) Evaluating later or expanded premises hours for alcohol in the night-time economy (ELEPHANT): statistical analysis plan medRxiv DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.05.07.24306991
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