Projects & Research Partnerships

Reforming alcohol taxes in a cost-of-living crisis

Evaluating the impact of reforms to the UK alcohol tax system, increases to alcohol tax rates, and the current cost-of-living crisis on alcohol consumption, associated harms and health inequalities.

Introduction

This project will evaluate the public health impact of reforms to the way the UK government taxes alcohol, accounting for the ongoing effects of the cost-of-living crisis.

It will generate new evidence on:

the extent and nature of impacts on the population overall and on specific population subgroups
how differences in alcohol policies across the UK shape those impacts
the potential for future policies to enhance or mitigate the impacts

The project will provide new insights for designing alcohol tax policies that are effective, including during periods of economic instability. This includes actionable evidence for policymakers on how to maximise public health benefits and reduce health inequalities while avoiding adverse effects and supporting vulnerable populations.

Work packages

The project is split into five parts or 'work packages' (WP):

WP1 will look at how and why alcohol prices change over time, which groups of people will be most affected by the price increases, and which companies face the biggest tax increases. We will use market research data and trade news reports.

WP2 will test whether the price changes make people drink less alcohol. We will use data on how much alcohol is sold, bought and consumed.

WP3 will look into how different groups of people cope with the alcohol price changes. First, we will talk to different groups of drinkers who have been most affected to understand their experiences. Second, we will talk to people with serious alcohol problems and less money about how they are affected. Third, we will ask people about their drinking habits in surveys, as well as asking if they have any money worries or mental health problems.

WP4 will test if the price changes lead to fewer people dying or going to hospital due to alcohol. We will use detailed data on deaths and hospital visits.

WP5 will find out the long-term impact of the price changes on people's health and what else the Government could do to help. We will use different types of data together in a computer 'model' that tells us how many people might die due to alcohol over the next 20 years. We will also talk to government officials, health organisations, alcohol charities and politicians about what other actions the Government could take to change alcohol taxes or prices. Finally, we will use the same model to see which of these actions would make the biggest difference to people's health.

Research team

The project is led by the Sheffield Addictions Research Group at the University of Sheffield and includes a wider team of researchers from the University of Stirling, University College London and the University of Nottingham. The project group has worked together on alcohol and health research for 12 years, including the current 'No/Lo Project'.

Civil servants and health charities helped to design this project and the public will help to lead it. They are contributing to our methods and will help to interpret results. They will also advise on sharing the results with the public, the media, charities, governments and international experts.

Key project information

This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme (NIHR156679). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Dates

March 2024 – February 2027

Funding

£1,992,369.59

Principal investigator

Professor John Holmes

Joint lead applicant

Professor Colin Angus

Institutions involved

University of Sheffield
University of Stirling
University College London
University of Nottingham

Key contact

john.holmes@sheffield.ac.uk

Papers

Wilson LB, Pryce R, Leeming G, Holmes J, Angus C (2025) Estimating the differential exposure of household groups to alcohol duty reforms in Great Britain, Journal of Public Health DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaf081

Angus C, Schöley J (2025) Estimating recent trends in alcohol sales in the United Kingdom from alcohol duty revenue Addiction DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/add.70109

Jackson SE, Cox S, Holmes J, Angus C, Robson D, Brose L, Brown J (2024) Paying the price: Financial hardship and its association with psychological distress among different population groups in the midst of Great Britain's cost-of-living crisis Social Science and Medicine DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117561

Morris D, Angus C, Gillespie D, Stevely A, Pryce R, Wilson L, Henney M, Meier P, Holmes J, Brennan A (2024) Estimating the Impact of Transitioning to a Strength-Based Alcohol Tax System on Alcohol Consumption and Health Outcomes: A Modelling Study of Tax Reform in England The Lancet Public Health DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00191-9. See accompany commentary.