Reforming alcohol taxes in a cost-of-living crisis

Introduction

This project will evaluate the public health impact of reforms to the way the UK government taxes alcohol, accounting for the ongoing effects of the cost-of-living crisis.

It will generate new evidence on:

• the extent and nature of impacts on the population overall and on specific population subgroups
• how differences in alcohol policies across the UK shape those impacts
• the potential for future policies to enhance or mitigate the impacts

The project will provide new insights for designing alcohol tax policies that are effective, including during periods of economic instability. This includes actionable evidence for policymakers on how to maximise public health benefits and reduce health inequalities while avoiding adverse effects and supporting vulnerable populations.

Work packages

The project is split into five parts or ‘work packages’ (WP):

WP1 will look at how and why alcohol prices change over time, which groups of people will be most affected by the price increases, and which companies face the biggest tax increases. We will use market research data and trade news reports.

WP2 will test whether the price changes make people drink less alcohol. We will use data on how much alcohol is sold, bought and consumed.

WP3 will look into how different groups of people cope with the alcohol price changes. First, we will talk to different groups of drinkers who have been most affected to understand their experiences. Second, we will talk to people with serious alcohol problems and less money about how they are affected. Third, we will ask people about their drinking habits in surveys, as well as asking if they have any money worries or mental health problems.

WP4 will test if the price changes lead to fewer people dying or going to hospital due to alcohol. We will use detailed data on deaths and hospital visits.

WP5 will find out the long-term impact of the price changes on people’s health and what else the Government could do to help. We will use different types of data together in a computer ‘model’ that tells us how many people might die due to alcohol over the next 20 years. We will also talk to government officials, health organisations, alcohol charities and politicians about what other actions the Government could take to change alcohol taxes or prices. Finally, we will use the same model to see which of these actions would make the biggest difference to people’s health.