Projects & Research Partnerships

Evaluating Later and Expanded Premises Hours for Alcohol in the Night-time Economy (ELEPHANT)

This study uses a mixed-methods natural experiment design to evaluate and explore the impact of increases in late-night opening hours for alcohol premises in Glasgow and Aberdeen and their implications for the night-time economy in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction

In 2018-19, the Scottish cities of Glasgow and Aberdeen changed their alcohol licensing policies to allow bars and nightclubs to stay open later at night. International studies have previously found that increases in late-night opening hours have tended to lead to increased levels of injuries and violence, with significant rises in ambulance call-outs and assaults.

Aims of the evaluation

This natural experiment evaluation study, funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), aims to evaluate the effects of these increases in opening hours and to assess their wider impacts on businesses, policing, the ambulance services, public health and the wider NHS. We also aim to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these outcomes and on the night-time economy.

What we will do

The study takes a mixed-methods approach, using both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the 'natural experiment' of increased licensing hours.

The research is structured into five Work Packages (WPs):

WP1 will use interviews with key stakeholders and documentary analysis to explore why the policy changes came about and what the expected impacts of the increased opening hours were prior to their introduction.

WP2 will use venue observation and interviews with pub, bar and nightclub staff and owners to understand how venues reacted to the policies and their perceptions of their impacts.

WP3 will use time-series analysis to estimate the impact of the policy changes on alcohol-attributable ambulance call-outs and late-night criminal offences as well as exploring whether the increased opening hours led to changes in the timing, or location of these harms.

WP4 will use health economic methods to evaluate the impact of the policy changes on costs to the NHS, police services and local businesses.

WP5 will use health economic modelling to estimate the longer-term impacts on public health and health inequalities of the policy changes and incorporate evidence from WPs 3 and 4 to model the potential impacts of increases in late-night opening hours in other local authorities in England and Scotland.

Why this research matters

Alcohol licensing is one of the few policy approaches that local authorities have available to them to address alcohol-related harms in their area. However, local authorities are also keen to promote economic growth. This study will provide new insights into the potential tensions between these aims and quantify the potential impacts and trade-offs involved in decisions around late-night alcohol licensing decisions.

In addition, the UK government has recently announced proposals to reform the alcohol licensing system, including a liberalisation of late-night opening hours. This study will provide direct evidence on the impacts of this approach, which may help to inform the development of national policy.

Research team

University of Stirling: Professor Niamh Fitzgerald (principal investigator), Dr David Fitzpatrick
University of Sheffield: Professor Colin Angus (WP5 lead)
University of Glasgow: Professor Jim Lewsey, Professor Emma McIntosh
Glasgow Caledonian University: Professor Carol Emslie
University of Dundee: Dr Andrea Mohan

Key project information

NIHR logo

This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme (NIHR129885). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Dates

October 2020 – December 2025

Funding

£1,185,782.60

Principal investigator

Professor Niamh Fitzgerald, University of Stirling

Institutions involved

University of Stirling
University of Sheffield
Glasgow Caledonian University
University of Dundee
University of Manchester
Alcohol Focus Scotland
Glasgow City Health and Social Care Partnership

Key contacts

niamh.fitzgerald@stir.ac.uk
c.r.angus@sheffield.ac.uk

Publications

Emslie C, Maxwell K, O'Donnell R, Mitchell G, Cook M, Uny I, Nicholls J, Lewsey J, McIntosh E, Angus C, Mohan A, Fitzgerald N (2026) How are bars and nightclubs in Scotland using extensions in late-night alcohol trading hours? Venue observation study International Journal of Drug Policy DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2026.105210

Sheikh N, Haghpanahan H, Lewsey J, et al (2025) Protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a natural experiment to evaluate the impact of later trading hours for bars and clubs in the night-time economy in Scotland: The ELEPHANT study BMJ Open DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-095241

Sheikh N, Lewsey J, Henriques-Cadby I, Angus C, Manca F, Haghpanahan H, McIntosh E, Mitchell G, Cook G, Maxwell K, Mohan A, Uny I, Smith E, Nicholls J, O'Donnell R, Fitzgerald N (2025) The impact of later trading hours for bars and clubs on alcohol-related ambulance call-outs and crimes in Scotland: A controlled interrupted time series study medRxiv DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339133

Fitzgerald N, O'Donnell R, Uny R, Martin JG, Cook M, Graham K, Stockwell T, Hughes K, Wilkinson C, McGill E, Miller PG, Reynolds J, Quigg Z, Angus C (2024) Reducing alcohol harms whilst minimising impact on hospitality businesses: 'Sweetspot' policy options International Journal of Drug Policy DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104465

Sheikh N, Henriques-Cadby I, Haghpanahan H, Angus C, O'Donnell R, Emslie C, Fitzgerald N, Lewsey J (2024) Evaluating later or expanded premises hours for alcohol in the night-time economy (ELEPHANT): statistical analysis plan medRxiv DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.05.07.24306991

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