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The Sheffield Addictions Research Group (SARG) has published a major new report that models the impact of alcohol pricing policies on alcohol consumption and harm in Wales.

The report, 'New modelling of alcohol pricing policies, alcohol consumption and harm in Wales: An adaptation of the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model v2.6.0', was commissioned by the Welsh Government and provides evidence to inform the decision about the future of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol in Wales.

MUP of 50p per unit came into force on 2 March 2020 and will expire on 1 March 2026 without new legislation. The Welsh Government is currently consulting on the future of MUP and has proposed retaining MUP and increasing the threshold to 65p per unit. This would bring it in line with Scotland which increased its MUP from 50p to 65p in September 2024.

About the report

The report was published in July 2025 and uses the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model (STAPM) to appraise the impact of:

• raising or lowering the current MUP threshold, or removing MUP entirely
• changes to alcohol taxation, and a comparison of this with MUP
• mechanisms to regularly uprate the MUP threshold in the future

Key findings

Our modelling finds that increasing the MUP level is likely to reduce alcohol consumption and related harms, effectively targeting those most at risk. Conversely, lowering or removing MUP altogether would increase these harms. The report also highlights that high inflation can erode the real-terms value of MUP, potentially increasing alcohol-related harm and cancelling out some of the policy's benefits.

• MUP vs. alcohol duty: Significant increases in alcohol duty would be required to achieve the same reductions in alcohol-specific deaths as an increase in the MUP level. However, duty increases do not reduce health inequalities to the same extent as MUP.
• The impact of inflation: The report highlights the effect of high inflation, which has eroded the real-terms value of the 50p MUP level. By 2026, the value of the current 50p MUP is estimated to fall to the equivalent of 39p in 2020 prices.
• Need for uprating: To maintain the same real-terms value, the MUP threshold in 2026 would need to increase to 65p per unit. The modelling shows that regular uprating of the MUP threshold in line with inflation is crucial to prevent alcohol consumption and harms from rising over time.

Our previous work on minimum unit pricing

SARG has a long history of providing evidence to inform minimum unit pricing policy. Our team produced a series of policy appraisals for the Welsh Government that contributed to the development and implementation of the 50p MUP in Wales in 2020. We also provided similar reports to the Scottish Government before MUP was implemented in Scotland in 2018.

Our modelling platform has also been used to explore the potential impact of a wide range of alcohol policies in other countries including England, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Canada and Italy.

Documents and links

• Download the full report: 'New modelling of alcohol pricing policies, alcohol consumption and harm in Wales: an adaptation of the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model v2.6.0. A summary of the key findings of the report is also available.
• Welsh Government Consultation: Consultation on setting the minimum price of alcohol beyond 2026.
• Minimum unit pricing explained: common questions and answers about MUP.
• SARG modelling: Further information about our modelling expertise including details of current and past projects.