Projects & Research Partnerships

CASCADE: Calibrated Agent Simulations for Combined Analysis of Drinking Etiologies

The CASCADE project aimed to develop new computer models of alcohol use which draw on existing theories for why people drink and sought novel combinations of these theories in order to better explain the changes in alcohol use we observe in society.

Introduction

CASCADE was a major alcohol policy modelling project funded by the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). The project was an international collaboration between researchers at four world-leading centres in alcohol studies and policy modelling:

the Sheffield Addictions Research Group at the University of Sheffield, UK
the Alcohol Research Group at the Public Health Institute in California
the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in Toronto
the New York University College of Global Public Health

Alcohol poisoning and liver disease are two of the largest causes of death in middle-aged people in both the US and England, and both are strongly related to excessive alcohol consumption. CASCADE developed new computer models of alcohol use which drew on existing theories for why people drink, and sought novel combinations of these theories in order to better explain the changes in alcohol use we observe in society.

These models were designed to provide transparency over the causal relationships that drive alcohol use and consequent levels of poisoning and liver disease. They also provided projections for how the levels of these harms might change under different possible futures, both with and without policy interventions.

Through this work, CASCADE aimed to provide policymakers with insight into how these harms have developed over the last 40 years and guide development of new policies to reduce their prevalence.

Outputs from the project including models, software and publications are listed below.

Key project information

This project is funded by the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA).

Dates

August 2016 – April 2022

Funding

2016: $465,698
2017: $461,888
2018: $461,888
2019: $461,888
2020: $461,888

Principal investigator

Robin Purshouse, University of Sheffield

Institutions involved

University of Sheffield
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (Canada)
Public Health Institute (USA)
New York University College of Global Public Health

Key contact

robin.purshouse@sheffield.ac.uk

Outputs

Software

CASCADE mechanism-based social systems modelling architecture (including tutorial model), microsimulation, and agent-based models.
Mechanism-based social systems modelling (MBSSM) software, licensed for use under the GNU GPL version 3.
CASCADEPOP dynamic microsimulation software, licensed for use under the GNU GPL version 3.
CASCADE social norms model software, licensed for use under the GNU GPL version 3.
CASCADE social roles model software, licensed for use under the GNU GPL version 3.
CASCADE dual process model software, licensed for use under the GNU GPL version 3.

Models

Dynamic microsimulation (known as CASCADEPOP) that accurately captures demographic and alcohol use trends for the US at both state and country level since 1984. The model also includes estimates of individuals' cumulative alcohol use to 1984, their body mass index over time, and their hepatitis B and C virus status over time. CASCADEPOP is being exploited and further developed on the separate NIAAA-funded 'Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity' (SIMAH) project where it is being extended to 15 states.
Agent-based model of social norm theory.
Agent-based model of social role theory.
Agent-based model of dual process theory.
Multi-objective genetic programming (MOGP) methods and tools for the structural calibration (also known as 'inverse generative social science' and 'model discovery') of agent-based models. Software for MOGP is available via a series of open-source software repositories:
Mechanism-based social systems modelling (MBSSM) architecture for constructing theory-informed agent-based models using a formal approach that ensure consistency and enables multiple models to be re-used and integrated.

Publications

Cook WK, Kerr WC, Zhu Y, Bright S, Buckley C, Kilian C, Lasserre AM, Llamosas-Falcón L, Mulia N, Rehm J, Probst C (2024) Alcoholic beverage types consumed by population subgroups in the United States: Implications for alcohol policy to address health disparities Drug and Alcohol Review DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.13819

Purshouse RC, Buckley C, Brennan A. (2024) Commentary on Antosz et al. (2023): The role of macro-micro-macro frameworks and critical realism in agent-based modelling Environmental Modelling and Software DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.105959

Squires H, Kelly MP, Gilbert N, Sniehotta F, Purshouse RC (2023) The long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions; how can we model behavior? A review Health Economics DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4754

Epstein JM (2023) Inverse Generative Social Science: Backward to the Future Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation DOI: https://doi.org/10.18564%2Fjasss.5083

Vu TM, Buckley C, Duro JA, Brennan A, Epstein JM, Purshouse RC (2023) Can Social Norms Explain Long-Term Trends in Alcohol Use? Insights from Inverse Generative Social Science Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation DOI: https://doi.org/10.18564%2Fjasss.5077

Breeze PR et al (2023) Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions Health Economics DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fhec.4681

Buckley C, Field M, Vu TM, Brennan A, Greenfield TK, Meier PS, Nielsen A, Probst C, Shuper PA, Purshouse RC (2022) An integrated dual process simulation model of alcohol use behaviours in individuals, with application to US population-level consumption, 1984-2012 Addictive Behaviors DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.addbeh.2021.107094

Buckley C, Brennan A, Kerr WC, Probst C, Puka K, Purshouse RC, Rehm J (2022) Improved estimates for individual and population-level alcohol use in the United States, 1984-2020 International Journal of Drug and Alcohol Research DOI: https://doi.org/10.7895%2Fijadr.383

Boyd J, Sexton O, Angus C, Meier P, Purshouse RC, Holmes J (2022) Causal mechanisms proposed for the alcohol harm paradox-a systematic review Addiction DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fadd.15567

Patra J, Buckley C, Kerr WC, Brennan A, Purshouse RC, Rehm J (2021) Impact of body mass and alcohol consumption on all-cause and liver mortality in 240 000 adults in the United States Addiction DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fdar.13265

Manthey J, Solovei A, Anderson P, Carr S, Rehm J (2021) Can alcohol consumption in Germany be reduced by alcohol screening, brief intervention and referral to treatment in primary health care? Results of a simulation study PLoS One DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0255843

Purshouse RC, Buckley C, Brennan A, Holmes J (2021) Commentary on Robinson et al. (2021): Evaluating theories of change for public health policies using computer model discovery methods Addiction DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fadd.15595

Boyd J, Bambra C, Purshouse RC, Holmes J (2021) Beyond Behaviour: How Health Inequality Theory Can Enhance Our Understanding of the 'Alcohol-Harm Paradox' International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fijerph18116025

Llamosas-Falcón L, Shield KD, Gelovany M, Hasan OSM, Manthey J, Monteiro M, Walsh N, Rehm J (2021) Impact of alcohol on the progression of HCV-related liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis Journal of Hepatology DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2021.04.018

Vu TM, Davies E, Buckley C, Brennan A, Purshouse RC (2021) Using Multi-objective Grammar-based Genetic Programming to Integrate Multiple Social Theories in Agent-based Modeling Evol Multicriterion Optim DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007%2F978-3-030-72062-9_57

Vu TM (2021) Software review: Pony GE2 Genetic Programming and Evolvable Machines DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs10710-021-09409-5

Rehm J, Purshouse RC (2021) Causality and initiation of alcohol control policy. A response to Allamani Drug and Alcohol Review DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fdar.13371

Rehm J, Patra J, Brennan A, Buckley C, Greenfield TK, Kerr WC, Manthey J, Purshouse RC, Rovira P, Shuper PA, Shield KD (2021) The role of alcohol use in the aetiology and progression of liver disease: A narrative review and a quantification Drug and Alcohol Review DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fdar.13286

Vu TM, Buckley C, Bai H, Nielsen A, Probst C, Brennan A, Shuper P, Strong M, Purshouse RC (2020) Multiobjective Genetic Programming Can Improve the Explanatory Capabilities of Mechanism-Based Models of Social Systems Complexity DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155%2F2020%2F8923197

Probst C, Vu TM, Epstein JM, Nielsen AE, Buckley C, Brennan A, Rehm J, Purshouse RC (2020) The Normative Underpinnings of Population-Level Alcohol Use: An Individual-Level Simulation Model Health Education & Behavior DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1090198119880545

Brennan A, Buckley C, Vu TM, Probst C, Nielsen A, Bai H, Broomhead T, Greenfield T, Kerr W, Meier PS, Rehm J, Shuper P, Strong M, Purshouse RC (2020) Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for us health policy appraisal International Journal of Microsimulation DOI: https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00217

Llamosas-Falcón L, Shield KD, Gelovany M, Manthey J, Rehm J (2020) Alcohol use disorders and the risk of progression of liver disease in people with hepatitis C virus infection – a systematic review Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention and Policy DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186%2Fs13011-020-00287-1

Vu TM, Probst C, Nielsen A, Bai H, Buckley C, Meier PS, Strong M, Brennan A, Purshouse RC (2020) A software architecture for mechanism-based social systems modelling in agent-based simulation models Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation DOI: https://doi.org/10.18564%2Fjasss.4282

Vu TM, Probst C, Epstein JM, Brennan A, Strong M, Purshouse RC (2019) Toward inverse generative social science using multi-objective genetic programming Genet Evol Comput Conf DOI: https://doi.org/10.1145%2F3321707.3321840

Purshouse RC, Brennan A, Holmes J, Meier PS (2018) Commentary on Apostolopoulos et al. (2018): Systems and complex systems approaches for public health planning-back to the future? Addiction DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fadd.14096