Projects & Research Partnerships

Modelling the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Wales

This research used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to estimate the potential effects of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on consumption, spending, and alcohol-related harm in Wales, including health, crime, and absenteeism.

Introduction

In 2014 we were commissioned by the Welsh Government to adapt the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to Wales in order to appraise the potential impact of a range of alcohol pricing policies. The model had previously been used to appraise policies in England and Scotland.

The research questions were:

What is the estimated impact of MUP policies ranging from 35p-70p per unit if the policies were to be introduced in 2014?
What is the estimated impact of a ban on below-cost selling?
How do these impacts vary by drinker group (moderate, increasing risk, high risk) and by income group (in poverty, not in poverty)?

These main research questions were concerned with the likely effects of introducing MUP on alcohol consumption, spending, Exchequer and retailer receipts, health, crime and workplace absenteeism in Wales.

2017 update

In June 2017 we were commissioned by the Welsh Government once again to model the potential impact of a minimum unit pricing policy for alcohol and how this might compare to rises in alcohol duty. This built on the previous modelling work undertaken in 2014. The aims of this research were:

To use new data and new modelling approaches to provide new estimates of the impact of a MUP (at levels in 5p increments from 35-70p) on alcohol consumption, spending, health, crime and workplace outcomes, and how these impacts varied across different levels of drinking and deprivation.
To establish the proportional increase in alcohol duty which would be required to achieve the same reduction in the alcohol consumption of hazardous and harmful drinkers (those drinking over 14 units/week for men and women) as a 50p MUP and to illustrate how the impact of these two policies (MUP and duty rises) were distributed differently across the population.
To establish the proportional increase in alcohol duty which would be required to achieve the same reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths among hazardous and harmful drinkers as a 50p MUP and illustrate the differences in distribution of impact across the population.

Key project information

This research was funded by the Welsh Government. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government.

Dates

First report September 2014
Subsequent report February 2018

Institutions involved

University of Sheffield

Key contact

j.holmes@sheffield.ac.uk

Findings

The final and summary reports are available to download from the Welsh Government website.

Meng Y, Sadler S, Gell L, Holmes J, Brennan A (2014) Model-based appraisal of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Wales: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3 Cardiff: Welsh Government. See also a short summary report.

INTERIM REPORT: Angus C, Holmes J, Brennan A, Meier P (2017) Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of minimum unit pricing and taxation policies in Wales: An update to the 50p MUP example Cardiff: Welsh Government. GSR report number 73/2017

Angus C, Holmes J, Brennan A, Meier P (2018) Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of minimum unit pricing and taxation policies in Wales: Final report Cardiff: Welsh Government. GSR report number 11/2018. See also a short summary report.