Projects & Research Partnerships

Natural experimental evaluation of increasing the minimum unit price for alcohol in Scotland to 65p

This study uses a natural experiment design to evaluate the public health impact of the September 2024 increase in Scotland's minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol from 50p to 65p.

Introduction

In 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol, initially set at 50p per unit. Research has shown that this policy successfully reduced alcohol consumption, decreased alcohol-related deaths, and helped narrow health inequalities.

However, since its introduction, the real-world value of the 50p price floor has been eroded by high levels of inflation. To ensure the policy remains effective, the Scottish Government increased the MUP to 65p per unit in September 2024.

This two-year study, funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), will evaluate the impact of this price increase.

Aims of the evaluation

The project aims to evaluate the impact of increasing Scotland's MUP on levels of alcohol consumption, alcohol-related ambulance callouts, alcohol-specific hospitalisations and deaths, and associated health inequalities. Specifically, the study will assess how the 65p price floor affects:

  • Consumption: How much alcohol people drink across different beverage types.
  • Acute harm: Trends in alcohol-related ambulance callouts.
  • Chronic harm: Deaths and hospital admissions caused by alcohol.
  • Financial impact: How the price increase affects people under financial pressure.
  • Health inequalities: Whether the policy continues to help the groups who need it most.

What we will do

The study uses a 'natural experiment' approach. This means researchers will compare what happens in Scotland, where the price has increased, with what happens in England, where MUP is not in place. This allows us to isolate the specific impact of the price increase from other external factors.

The research is structured into six interlinked work packages:

We will co-produce a 'theory of change' alongside members of the public and key partners. This package involves triangulating evidence from across the study to interpret findings and co-ordinate how we share these results with policymakers and the public.

Using the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model (STAPM), we will conduct new analyses to inform short-term policy decisions regarding future price increases. We will also synthesise evidence from other work packages to estimate the long-term impacts of the 65p MUP on health and the economy.

Using time-series, panel and repeat cross-sectional study designs, we will examine the impact on alcohol sales, purchasing and consumption across different beverage types and population groups. This includes new analyses of the original 50p MUP using survey data adjusted to account for known biases.

We will evaluate the impact of the price increase on alcohol-related ambulance callouts. This work updates our previous evaluation of the original MUP to focus on the specific callout types and locations most likely to be affected by the policy.

This package uses mortality and hospitalisation data to examine the impact on alcohol-specific deaths and hospital admissions. We will use time series and novel retrospective cohort designs to track these health outcomes over time.

Through qualitative interviews, we will examine how the 65p MUP affects households under financial pressure, including both those who purchase smaller and larger amounts of alcohol.

Why this research matters

As governments across the UK and internationally look for evidence-based ways to reduce the burden of alcohol-related harm, this study provides vital information on how to maintain the effectiveness of pricing policies over time

By evaluating the move from 50p to 65p, our findings will help policymakers understand how 'uprating' (adjusting the price floor for inflation) works in practice. This will inform future decisions in Scotland and provide a blueprint for other nations considering similar public health interventions.

Research team

University of Glasgow: Professor Jim Lewsey (Lead Investigator), Professor Peter Craig, Dr Eliud Kibuchi, Professor Daniel Mackay, Dr Francesco Manca.

University of Sheffield: Professor Colin Angus, Dr Laura Fenton, Professor John Holmes, Dr Abigail Stevely.

University of Stirling: Professor Niamh Fitzgerald, Dr Allison Ford, Dr Rachel O'Donnell.

Partners: Public Health Scotland, Scottish Ambulance Service, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde.

Key project information

This study is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme (NIHR173364). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Dates

February 2026 – January 2028

Funding

£1,221,779.14

Principal investigator

Professor Jim Lewsey, University of Glasgow

Institutions involved

University of Sheffield
University of Stirling
NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde
Public Health Scotland
Scottish Ambulance Service

Key contact

jim.lewsey@glasgow.ac.uk
c.r.angus@sheffield.ac.uk

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