Modelling

Introduction

The Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Modelling Platform (STAPM) is a powerful tool designed to assess the potential health and economic impacts of tobacco and alcohol policies. Developed from the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM), STAPM extends its capabilities to include tobacco-related interventions and explores the interplay between tobacco and alcohol consumption. The platform aims to provide policymakers with evidence-based insights to inform effective public health strategies.

History and development

STAPM's roots lie in SAPM, (also known as the Sheffield model), which provided estimates of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alcohol policies including pricing and availability policies as well as screening and brief interventions. It has been influential in informing public and political debate on alcohol policy and has provided a key evidence base for informing policy decisions around minimum unit pricing of alcohol. More recently, estimates from an adapted version of the model were used to inform the UK Chief Medical Officers' lower risk drinking guidelines.

In 2014, as part of the UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies (UKCTAS), the model was expanded to incorporate tobacco-related factors. A collaborative workshop involving public health experts and academics shaped the development of the joint tobacco and alcohol policy system, encompassing themes such as price, place, person, promotion, prescription, and industry regulation.

Objectives

The STAPM research program has two primary goals:

1. To evaluate the health and economic effects of past trends, policy changes or interventions that have affected alcohol consumption and/or tobacco smoking.
2. To appraise the health and economic outcomes of potential future trends, changes to alcohol and/or tobacco policy or new interventions.

Key features

• Comprehensive modelling: STAPM simulates the effects of various tobacco and alcohol policies on consumption patterns, health outcomes, and economic costs.
• Data-driven approach: The platform relies on extensive data sources to inform its models, ensuring accuracy and relevance.
• Open and transparent: STAPM is committed to transparency, sharing its methodologies, data, and code to foster collaboration and scrutiny.
• Policy-focused: The platform is designed to provide policymakers with actionable insights to support evidence-based decision-making.

Applications

STAPM has been instrumental in informing public health policies and debates. Its applications include:

• Policy evaluation: Assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tobacco and alcohol pricing policies, screening and brief interventions, and other tobacco and alcohol interventions.
• Policy development: Providing evidence to support the development of new policies and strategies.
• Health promotion: Informing public health campaigns and initiatives aimed at reducing tobacco and alcohol-related harm.

By providing a robust and transparent modelling platform, STAPM contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between tobacco and alcohol consumption and their associated health and economic consequences.

Future development

Development of the STAPM modelling platform is continuing as part of the SPECTRUM UK Prevention Research Partnership consortium. This work extends the modelling already developed for England to Scotland and Wales, develops further health and economic outcomes, and continues to evaluate and appraise policies and interventions.