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A new study published this week in The Lancet Public Health by the Sheffield Addictions Research Group shows that while recent reforms to UK alcohol taxation are a step in the right direction, they are unlikely to significantly improve public health outcomes without further changes.

The study, led by Dr Damon Morris, used the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model to estimate the effects of the reforms on alcohol consumption, health, and economic outcomes. The reforms came into effect in August 2023 and mean that:

• all alcohol is taxed based on its ethanol content
• beers and ciders sold in on-trade premises (e.g. pubs, bars and restaurants) are taxed at a reduced rate (known as draught relief)
• beer and particularly cider remain taxed at lower rates than other alcohol of equivalent strength

The findings and methods of the study were published in The Lancet Public Health paper Estimating the effect of transitioning to a strength-based alcohol tax system on alcohol consumption and health outcomes: a modelling study of tax reform in England on 16 September 2024.

The tax reforms are estimated to decrease mean alcohol consumption by a relatively modest figure of less than 0.05 units per drinker a week. This translates to a prevention of 2,307 deaths and 11,510 hospital admissions over a 20-year period.

Hypothetical scenarios showed that removing draught relief would only slightly improve public health outcomes, while increasing tax rates for beer and ciders to match other drinks of equivalent strength would reduce consumption by a further 2.5 units per week and deaths by approximately 74,465.

The study shows that the 2023 alcohol tax reforms are unlikely to substantially improve health outcomes as they do not raise taxes overall. Raising tax rates for the lowest taxed beer and ciders, which are favoured by those who consume harmful amounts of alcohol, could achieve substantially greater public health benefits and reduce health inequalities.

Commentary

The paper is accompanied by a commentary, The Sheffield model's influence in informing alcohol control policy, written by Mark Robinson and Jaithri Ananthapavan.

In it the authors sum up the findings of the study and discuss the Sheffield model's relevance in appraising tax policies. They conclude that the paper contains useful insights for shaping policy in countries that do not have strength-based alcohol taxation.

Further research into alcohol tax reforms

The Sheffield Addictions Research Group is leading further research into the impacts of the 2023 alcohol tax reforms through the NIHR-funded project Reforming alcohol taxes in a cost-of-living crisis.

The three year project is a collaboration between the University of Sheffield, University of Stirling and University College London and aims to evaluate the public health impact of reforms to the way the UK government taxes alcohol, accounting for the ongoing effects of the cost-of-living crisis.